Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

I saw this article and got to thinking about the parallels with IND.http://www.airportbusiness.com....jsp?siteSection=3&id=6221

My first reaction was, "Gee. PIT wants international air service. Well, people in hell want icewater, too." And that they can't have it both ways. When PIT was a US hub, they'd complain about the high fares and lack of competition from a discount carrier. Now, US has dehubbed, WN and J6 have come in, and it's a much more reasonable fare in and out of PIT. But now they don't have international service. Boo freaking hoo. They could be like MSP where it costs you $500 or more to even think about flying there, but where you can catch a flight to London or Tokyo about every six minutes. But I digress...

IND certainly would like to land some nonstop international service, too. And I'm not talking about YYZ on a prop plane or some leisure getaway to CUN. I mean LON, AMS, CDG, FRA or NRT. So the parallels in this article were interesting. The bit about how PDX lured Lufthansa and then got NW flights to NRT and Mexicana to come in sounds like something that IND could do. And I vaguely remember hearing about the mayor's people doing something to get some nonstop international service. Are the mayor and the governor attacking this issue aggressively? Have they looked at what PDX has done? Have they looked at what RDU has done to get AA service to LGW?

So anyway, I thought I'd take a look at the list of largest metro areas with and without nonstop service to Europe or Asia.

In order, from largest metro area, here are those that have international nonstops to Europe and/or Asia and those that do not, with metro area populations:

1. New York metro, 21.9m, nonstop to freaking everywhere on multiple U.S. airlines and many foreign carriers
2. Los Angeles, 17.6m, nonstops to everywhere on multiple U.S. airlines and many foreign carriers
3. Chicago, 9.7m, nonstops to most everywhere on AA and UA plus many foreign carriers
4. Washington, 8.0m, extensive nonstops to Europe and many to Asia, dominated by UA and BA, plus many foreign carriers
5. San Fransisco, 7.2m, many nonstops to both Europe and Asia on UA, other U.S. carriers, and many foreign carriers
6. Dallas, 6.0m, nonstops to Europe and Asia mainly on AA with some service from BA and JP
7. Philadelphia, 6.0m, nonstops to Europe, dominated by US with some BA, AF, and LH service. No nonstop Asia service.
8. Boston, 5.8m, many nonstops to Europe on U.S. and several foreign carriers, no nonstops to Asia that I could find. Nonstop to FRA on SQ as well!
9. Detroit, 5.4m, many nonstops to Europe and Japan, dominated by NW/KL but with BA and LH service as well.
10. Miami, 5.4m, much service to Europe, dominated by AA but with many foreign carriers as well, including BA, LH, and Martinair Holland. Also an LHR nonstop on SQ!
11. Houston, 5.3m, service to Europe dominated by CO, but with BA, LH, and AF as well. No nonstops to Japan that I could find - I thought CO ran one, but maybe just didn't turn up in my search?
12. Atlanta, 5.2m, service to Europe, dominated by DL with some love from LH and KL as well. Service to Japan on DL.
13. Phoenix, 3.9m, no nonstop service to Europe or Asia that I could find.
14. Seattle, 3.8m, service to AMS on NW/KL, to LHR on BA. Service to Japan on NW, UA, and All Nippon.
15. Minneapolis, 3.5m, service to Euope and Japan dominated by NW/KLM
16. San Diego, 2.9m, no nonstop Europe or Japan service that I could find
17. Cleveland, 2.9m, no nonstop Europe or Japan service right now, I believe CO flies to LGW seasonally during the summer vacation months, unless they've discontinued that.
18. St Louis, 2.8m, no nonstop Europe or Asia that I could find.
19. Tampa, 2.6m, none
20. Denver, 2.6m, BA to LHR, LH to FRA, nothing to Asia.
21. Pittsburgh, 2.5m, none
22. Sacramento, 2.2m, none
23. Charlotte, 2.1m, nonstop to FRA on US
24. Cincinnatti, 2.1m, a few nonstops to Europe on DL
25. Portland (OR), 2.1m, LH to FRA, NW to NRT
26. Kansas City, 2.02m, none
27. Orlando, 1.997m, nonstops to LGW, MAN, AMS, maybe a couple others, on Martinair, BA, Virgin
28. Indy, 1.958m, sadly, none.
29. Columbus, 1.936m, none.
30. San Antonio, 1.89m, none.
31. Las Vegas, 1.75m, service to LGW on Virgin
...
35. Salt Lake City, 1.59m, none
36. Raleigh/Durham, 1.51m, nonstop to LGW on AA

It's very possible I missed a couple places that have some Europe service. And I might have missed the odd Asia service. And this doesn't include international nonstops to South or Central America. But for the most part, this breakdown shows what a city like PIT or IND are up against. There are a few factors that get a city into the big leagues of having nonstop service to Europe or Asia. First, be a major U.S. city, like any of the top 10 metro areas. There's simply enough o&d demand to offer service. Second, be a somewhat smaller city with a fairly large population demanding service to a particular region. SEA is a good example of this, with their large Japanese population and plenty of business ties to Japan and the rest of Asia. It also helps that they've been a traditional NW hub-like city forever. Third, be someone's major hub. You'll notice that the super-hubs for the U.S. airlines all get nonstop international service, but these are, for the most part, also among the largest metro areas. SOME of the domestic hubs get this service, like DEN, CLT, and CVG, but others do not, like CLE and SLC. Fourth, have another compelling reason to get service, like being Orlando or Las Vegas with a lot of leisure demand.

So that frames the uphill climb that a city like IND has in landing nonstop international service to Europe or Asia. The best thing IND has going for it is NW focus city status. The cargo hub status of the airport helps, and perhaps some of the attraction for auto racing could help, at least seasonally. But otherwise, it's a tough sell. Hopefully, the powers that be can get it done someday.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Forgetting market size our biggest problem has to do with facilities or the lack of them. Our international arrivals arrangement is pathetic. The little city of Melbourne, FL I used to live in (pop less than 100,000) has proper international arrivals with a jetway. How can any airline take our setup seriously? Its like trying to land the Super Bowl and hosting the game at IUPUI.

Traffic was also an issue. Until recently we hadn't even passed the 8 million passenger mark. Now we are on our way to 9 million passengers. Maybe not this year but likely by the end of 2007. By the end of 2008 or 2009 we could very well hit 10 million.

Another thing that had been missing was a hub like operation to provide some feed. We have that to some extent now with Northwest.

So we will have the ability to host the kind of service you speak of. The area is booming as well. We'll have more tools to drive the demand for this kind of service like a greatly expanded convention business in addition to the normal business demand.

I think this will be a done deal by 2010. I think NW will be the one to offer the service. I'm certain the yield will be better than what they are getting at MEM which by the way you left off your list

And the biggest thing we have going for us is that we are NOT ORD, PHL, ATL, DTW, etc. IND will be so much easier for passengers to complete their international travel. It will result in shorter walks, smaller lines, and less stress. It won't be the cattle call that the other 4 are that I mentioned. That is the best marketing tool we have. Just show a cramped hall with over a thousand people from 3 or 4 flights all packed in and waiting in line. Add in the sounds of cows mooing. I think it will make a good point.

If NW can get the 757-200 equipped with winglets maybe it will have the legs for IND-AMS which could get us started sooner. Or perhaps the 767 with KL.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

Excellent point about the facilities. But those will be improved with the new terminal, right? I think I mentioned in my Richmond trip report that they have an international arrivals hall at one of their gates. San Diego has a nice international arrivals facility as well, from what I could tell.

And sorry about MEM - they're number 44 on the list of biggest metros, with a 2005 metro population of 1.26m. One flight to AMS on NW.

I've always thought MEM a strange choice for NW to make a third hub. I guess their strategy at one point was to have a "southern" city for another hub. Ask me, they'd have been better off at Nashville or San Antonio if they really wanted a southern hub. MEM is the smallest metro area by far that serves as a hub for a major airline. For comparison sake, NW's three "focus" cities are all larger metro area populations than MEM. Here are NW's hubs and focus cities, in order from largest to smallest:

DTW: 5.428m people, major hub
MSP: 3.467m people, major hub
IND: 1.958m people, focus city
MKE: 1.709m people, focus city
GRR: 1.315m people, focus city (albeit a smaller focus)
MEM: 1.261m people, major hub

If they'd wanted a southern hub, Nashville (BNA) has a metro population of 1.499m people. Of course, when they established the hub at MEM, I think MEM was slightly larger. And probably had way better airport facilities than BNA.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Actually I don't think MKE is a focus city anymore. Other than their 3 hubs they have flights to something like 2 other cities.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

And I keep wondering why, with NW's stated goal of dominating the midwest, they don't establish a focus city at MCI just like what they've done here. Big metro area with a nice, big airport and a terminal with dozens of empty gates.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Does MCI have the ability to draw passengers from other markets the way IND does because of how close it is located to places like Cincinnati and Louisville?

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

I think they draw pax somehwat like IND does CVG and SDF. But the distances are a little longer. MCI has a lot of population nearby that draws pax from places like St. Joseph, MO, Topeka and Manhattan, KS, and other small KS cities that have expensive air service. I think they also could draw from Omaha and Des Moines, particularly where the fares are competitive and MCI offers a nonstop option.

But IND draws or is capable of drawing, from a much larger area, I think. South Bend, Fort Wayne, Dayton, Cincy, Louisville, Southern and Central IL. MCI might draw from Des Moines, Omaha, Topeka, and from Columbia, MO, but the population in their draw area is not as big as IND's. The wildcard in that assumption is how far west of MCI you'd draw from. Cities like Manhattan, Salina, Wichita, Great Bend, Hays, Dodge City, that all have air service - would folks drive to MCI for nonstop service at a reasonable fare?