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Joined: 17 Jun 2005
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From IBJ Daily email...

Northwest bankruptcy could lead airline to rethink Indianapolis routes

Rating agency Fitch Inc. said Northwest Airlines Inc.'s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing could lead the company to scale back its "Heartland Strategy," which has led it to increased point-to-point service from Indianapolis International Airport and other airports. Northwest operates 46 Indianapolis flights daily, 25 percent of the airport's total. The rating agency said smaller cities with unprofitable routes may be most vulnerable to cuts.

I'm not sure how much this would affect Indy, actually. I think about 2/3rd or more of the NW flights are on Pinnacle (anyone know the actual number?). Pinnacle can certainly operate these routes much more cheaply than NW mainline service. I once heard a pilot say that regional jets can operate at a profit with as few as 5 passengers on board. In my experience, these flights have all been 75% full or more - so my guess is that these are very profitable flights.

As for the mainline flights, the ones currently operating include LAS, LAX, and DEN operated with A319's (SEA, PHX, and CUN are off-season right now). TPA, RSW, and MCO are operated with DC9's, while FLL is a DC9 some days and a CRJ others. With TZ leaving Indy seemingly more each day, I think the LAX and LAS routes are safe. The DEN route could be looked at to drop, since it's also served by UA and Frontier. As for the Florida routes, I haven't been on these to know if they're well-booked or sparse. If NW is getting good traffic, I would think they'd want to keep TPA and RSW. MCO has FL, TZ, and WN flying this route, so NW might cede it to the others. What might happen is FL (Airtran) pounces on NW's troubles and adds service from IND to TPA, FLL, and RSW, and maybe even adds capacity on the MCO route. {Not sure how they'd do this with limited gate space at IND, but who knows?}

As for the "seasonal" routes - SEA, PHX, CUN, MIA, PBI, SRQ - that's up in the air. It's the only nonstop service to SEA (sure would be nice if Alaska started service SEA-IND, though). PHX is also served by HP, and who knows if that will remain once the HP/US merger is complete? CUN is being dropped by TZ and replaced by FL, right? So maybe NW doesn't bring that route back. MIA is served by AA; it wouldn't be a bad idea for NW to keep that route and shift it to Pinnacle. PBI and SRQ - those are a toss up IMHO.

All in all, I don't think IND will lose routes. NW may drop some service, but probably only where it's duplicated by other airlines. Perhaps the SEA service goes bye-bye, but elsewhere, I think other airlines will step in if NW discontinues anything.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I just checked flytecomm.com and for today NW had 28 mainline flights and 21 Pinnacle flights. Bankruptcy is certainly a way to get out of their new agreement with IND for the 8 gates. I think AirTran will be the factor. Does NW scale back and risk AirTran becoming the dominant carrier? Or do they defend their turf at the risk of trying to compete with a solid LCC?

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Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

possible scenarios-

1. in the event for Northwest to drop out completely and look for Pinnacle to pick up -everything-.

2. look for Northwest to scale back to what it was the summer of 04.

3. state of indiana bails out ATA and brings the airline back along with a commuter affiliate to fly smaller RJ routes. and i can tell you that #'s are being crunched on this one right now.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
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Location: Indianapolis, IN

I think #2 is the most likely in my opinion. I don't know if NW can survive here against the likes of AirTran (FL). Would there really be any money in the #1 option? With #3 the city has been played once by ATA. Not sure they'd lift a finger to help them out again. But then again US is dead and they will never emerge from bankruptcy (or at least I thought)

Translated... hell froze over. lol

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Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

I look for the state and the city to try some desperate measures, even if they stepped up to the plate for ATA once before. After all, their hella project for the new terminal is now under way and it's time for them to get serious in protecting this investment.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I think if they are going to fork over money for any airline they should for the likes of AirTran and not ATA. ATA will be down to 3 flights a day by late October and no longer have anything to offer. AirTran on the other hand is looking for a stronger operation in this region of the country.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

Yes, but it's a matter of numbers.

ATA had a large number of flights. Then Northwest, already with a pretty good operation to Detroit, Minneapolis, Memphis. Great. Build the new terminal.

Northwest comes in and ATA dwindles down to four flights a day. But that's ok because Northwest is adding more and more flights. Then Air Tran comes in and steps up with service. So the flights and interest are there.

If Northwest was to drop the Indy focus, and ATA has three flights, then you're just stuck hoping AirTran has a SHITLOAD of interest in Indianapolis.

If they don't, then something needs to be done.

A la a city/state-subsidized ATA.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Are you talking about ATA relocating back to IND from MDW? If they were going to do something I think they would either have to do it right away or wait 3 years. Last time I made a mental note on space at IND it was really limited. C6 or C7 was open. C2 was sort of open. It was a per use arrangement but according to an AirTran rep they were getting C2. C1 was used by America West & Midwest Express. America West now operates out of D6. Not sure what the status is of Midwest. Assuming they share a gate now with another airline that would at best leave two open gates (if AirTran really is getting C2). There really isn't much room to grow. Unless someone downsizes in a big way there isn't room for them to grow beyond 30 flights a day. One of two players would have to pretty much pull out. Those two being US and NW. The two of them account for 15 of the 34 gates. The rest are split up among a number of different carriers each having 2 or 3 gates each. Some having only 1. I don't think anyone outside of those two have more than 3. There is no room to work. Not until 2008.

There is going to be another big boost in traffic coming up in the next 6 months. NW's winter & spring schedule is heavier than current. Also AirTran is increasing its schedule. Starting in Jan you will most likely be seeing 3 weekly Cancun flights for Frontier. DL is starting twice daily SLC service. I also suspect you will see more passengers service with HP/US simply because of the location of IND. You may see the new company use IND to break down some of its west to east travel since PHL and CLT are so far east and most connections would be greatly backtracking. Right now there are very limited connection opportunities with US in IND because IND is at the western most edge of their network. With the merger IND will be right in the middle. It all depends on whether the new company adopts what US does and connect through the best available facility.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
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Location: Indianapolis, IN

NW who at one time had pulled the CUN route from IND has put it back up for sale. It is indeed returning Jan 7th 2006. Perhaps pressure from Frontier?

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Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

not entirely. just realize the lucrative business that will come from Purdue, U of I, ISU, IU, and the other colleges in the area alone between February and April.

btw, one year and counting of Northwest in Indy.