Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I just checked and the DEN nonstop flight is no longer available in the system for this summer. NW has finally pulled it.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

I think the airline lesson that's beginning to emerge from all this is that you don't want to be the third nonstop carrier on a route. Why would NW expect big loads at profitable fares when UA and F9 will both vigorously defend their IND-DEN routes? Unless you've got some kind of superior product - be it the planes/service (a la Jet Blue) or a better frequent flyer program, or more connections to offer, or something - then it becomes about the fare and nothing else. So your only tactic for increasing revenue on such a route is to lower your fare make it up on volume by hoping to fill up your planes.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

Ha! Just wait for that 717 from Air Tran to start the route. Haha. ;p

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

It is a shame though, if Northwest is going to become serious about Indianapolis, I'd like to see them do well, even if it makes cheering on the person that knocked off ATA.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

If AirTran is going to make IND into a large operation over the next few years I think it will be added to fill the needs of the local base plus some connecting traffic as well as more eastern markets are added. Also watch for SEA server to come in over the next 2 years.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

It's interesting, this outlook for both NW and FL. It's in each airline's best interest that the other succeed, actually. Having one airline with a large share of the market (say 30% or so) invites other airlines to come in and try it. Having two airlines that each have 30% or so of the market leaves only 40% or so for all the other airlines to fight over. So the others remain content to run flights to their hubs and maybe another city or two. But you rarely see an airport with more than two dominant airlines. AAMOF, I can't think of one. Is there an airport with three airlines having dominant shares?

So you see, when US dominated IND alone, TZ came in and established a dominating presence. When US faded, eventually, NW came in and established itself as the other dominant airline. When TZ went tits up, it left NW as the only dominant carrier, and now FL seems to be filling in. Anecdotally, it seems that an airport can be dominated by one airline as a fortress hub when they have 50-60% or more of the flights, like MSP, EWR, CVG, DTW, IAH, CLT, and others. But below that number with one airline only in the 30-40% range, you see a second airline get to a dominating position - like ORD, ATL, DEN (although DEN was actually a case where UA did have 65%+ position, and F9 grew anyway).

So for IND, unless FL or NW wants to go after it as a fortress hub, it's better to get to 25-35% share each and be content with that. Becuase then there won't be a third airline trying to come in and build up a presence.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Tits up?

Unlikely NW would try and make it a fortress up. Chances would be greater with FL. But who knows what the odds of that really are. NW will be the most unpredictable of them all. No idea what bankruptcy will do to them and IND. How will Newco impact IND?

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

Indy wrote:

Tits up? Also known as Tango Uniform in more polite circles.

My point was more that NW and FL would be smart to stay out of each others' way, within reason. Try not to duplicate n/s routes too much. If they're both strong, it discourages WN from trying to ramp up service here (as if they'd want to) or a newly inspired UA from muscling in.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

Boofer wrote:

or a newly inspired UA from muscling in.

and a la Air Tran flying into LAX and SFO.

if Jet Blue doesn't announce a start up in Indy by the end of the summer time, then I'd doubt they'll be coming in here definitely leaving Air Tran open for taking over that third gate. right now, i see them as the only carrier that might be willing to take a risk to launch a substantial amount of flights to and from the city. even so, they'd only have two gates which wouldn't leave room for much except cherry picking routes that Indy fliers have been loyally flying for years.