Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

According to this article, http://www.marketwatch.com/New...C140-439B-9D99-BD69E6694242%7D

JetBlue will add 14 new destinations in 2007. They will be discussing growth plans on their 3rd Quarter conference call tomorrow. The speculation is raging over at a.net and elsewhere as to what the 14 cities will be.

Adding up all the pieces to the puzzle:

1. Neeleman (CEO) has publicly stated that they wish to expand in the Midwest.
2. We've already seen the announcement that they're adding ORD to their network.
3. They've begun flying the 190's, which is allowing them to serve smaller markets on long-ish routes.
4. We saw pictures of a 190 here at IND recently, that was painted up like some kind of Embraer Demo a/c, rather than in an airline livery.
5. They added CMH recently, a smaller market than IND that is bracketed by DAY (good selection of LCC service) and CVG (DL fortress hub) and in range of CLE (CO fortress hub). IND has a good selection of LCC service and has larger primary and secondary markets than CMH, and IND is further from fortress hubs (although CVG is still pretty close) than CMH.
6. We've been discussing gates at IND that are either open now or possibly coming open soon.
7. The two highest-demand destinations from IND that lack nonstop service are PDX and SAN, both of which are JetBlue cities.


So let the speculation begin...is B6 coming to IND? Who's going to volunteer to follow the news from the conference call? (I'm going to be at the FFA luncheon...)

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I'll follow the news. I have no life. But you already know that lol.

Member

Joined: 14 Jun 2006
Posts: 142
Location: IND

Didn't they report a quarterly loss and a scale back in service?

I may be able to find some articles later.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

They were cutting back I think on future deliveries of A320's and one of the E jet models. Sounds like the initial report was way off.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

It does sound like it, but the original report had Jetblue as its source. So maybe the 14 new cities is still going to happen and they just didn't talk about it on the conf call. I guess the glass is half full with me...

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

14 cities is quite a lot. the start up, etc. and the advertising. and plus they like to fill up the first month or so with dirt cheap fares to get the name out there. i guess it works to an extent but doing this 14 times over isn't going to help them at all.

they finally got into Chicago, which was one of their biggest holes in the network. it might help them to hold back a bit...if not a bunch and concentrate on profitability and controlling their cost overruns and unexpectancies.

problem is -- where would they fly?

New York?

In my opinion...New York is covered. We have Northwest, US Airways, Continental, and Delta.

Boston?

Boston is also covered....Northwest and US Airways offer ample service.

I highly doubt they would connect the dots of a new "sub station" with another sub station right off the bat...so I doubt San Diego or Portland would come into play. Long Beach is possible, but far off, in my opinion.

I think Indianapolis is going to be skipped, in my opinion. If it is not, I will be surprised.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I agree. It would seem unlikely that jetBlue comes here. There is already quite a bit LCC competition here. Not something that jetBlue goes for.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

I think it would be more of a hassle now than anything.

You have the loyal US Airways & Northwest frequent fliers that want their miles.

Of course Northwest's large base can cash in on Delta & Continenal.

US Airways' base can cash in on United.

People are just going ga ga nuts over AirTran as it is.

Southwest has a large market share and following here and American ain't no slouch either. Frontier seems to be holding its own and has added service, nonetheless.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

But what about IND as a destination for New York pax? Faremeasure lists demand as 1,122 daily average. There are a LOT of very loyal Jet Blue folks in the NY area, and they tend to be frequent business travellers. As the economy continues to improve and our local convention business grows, Indy is a must-be market for any New York-based airline.

Look at it in another way. All of the cities where Jet Blue has added service had loyal frequent flyers of other airlines prior to JetBlue's arrival. Look at RDU. It's a much smaller metro area than Indy, and the airport's draw is much smaller. They have an AA focus city there with lots of loyal frequent flyers. They also have service to NYC on CO, DL, US, and others; they have Airtran and Southwest, yet JetBlue came to RDU. It appears that they're successful. The same dynamics are at work in IND.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

Raleigh - Durham draws 9.5 million passengers annually.

Indianapolis is 8.5 million passengers annually.

1,500 people daily between RDU and New York City.
500 people daily between RDU and Boston.

1,100 people daily between IND and New York City.
300 people daily between IND and Boston.


there are 24 daily flights between Raleigh and La Guardia with 23 of them being on the 30 and 50 seat RJ's. the other is a 737 codeshare on US Air & United. these flights account for about 1,000 daily seats into La Guardia. US Airways offers connections throughout the northeast on their system from La Guardia as well, so not all of their seats sold are for local traffic.

there are 13 daily flights between Raleigh and Newark, interestingly enough. AA Eagle flies the ER3's, Continental flies mostly the ERJ's, with two 737's timed with international banks...and the flights into Newark are timed with connections throughout the northeast. US Airways and United codeshare a 737 into Newark. Probably 600 seats here.

there are 14 daily flights into Kennedy, all of them on the regional jets except the flights on JetBlue. probably 700 seats here. the RJ's on Delta and AA are timed appropriately enough with their JFK international and northeastern banks.

so about 2,300 seats offered between RDU and the New York area market, not all of which are exclusive to local traffic, etc.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

Yes, you're exactly correct on those statistics. I was referring to the population figures for the metropolitan statistical areas and for the geographical area (and its population) considered to be the area from which each airport draws its passengers.

Official 2005 census figures show the Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) to have 1,958,453 people. Interim studies say that the area exceeded 2 million people in early 2006.

The same figures show the Raleigh-Durham-Cary, NC MSA to contain 1,509,560 people. There are an estimated 1.6 million people there now.

The geographic draw area for IND is considered to run from approximately Champaign, IL to Rensselaer, IN to Rochester, Fort Wayne, Shelbyville, Scottsburg, Washington, IN to Effingham and Charleston, IL and to draw from a population of approximately 6 million people.

The geographic draw area for RDU is considered to be from about Burlington to Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids to Greenville, to Goldsboro, Fayetteville and Sanford. The geographic area is much smaller than for IND and the population in this draw area is about 4.2 million people.

My point is twofold - RDU is very adequately served to the New York market, and its growth is driven much more by the growth of the metro area (at about 4% per year) than by drawing on the population further away.

IND, on the other hand, is well served to New York also, as you've pointed out. And the airport's growth relies much more on drawing passengers in from outlying areas than on the organic growth of the metro area (at about 1.4% per year - but one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the midwest, btw).

IND has a somewhat higher growth potential than RDU, and far lower seat volume going to New York than RDU. Yet Jet Blue decided to enter RDU despite all this.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

yes, funny isn't it.

it's similar to AirTran & Northwest out of here...where do they keep adding seats to? Florida.

where is there a demand with miniscule service at times? the west coast.


also, with the geographical areas, you dont have just Indianapolis. you also can toss Louisville, Dayton, Chicago Midway into the mix. Raleigh/Durham is kind of the low fare point for the North Carolina area. Greensboro and Charlotte really dont offer much in the way of fare competition, as I have seen in services and discussion of fares offered by the industry.