Author

Message

Indy

Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:00:14 am

Indy
Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

According to IND stats the airport authority is forecasting a passenger load of about 8.5 million passengers for 2008 which will be near record levels. I however do not share their optimism for growth this year. I see a few problems with 2008.

1) 2008 will be a transitional year for the Indianapolis International Airport. The current airport is out of room. There just isn't room for morning or light night growth. There is only room for some growth during the day. I don't think many carriers are going to make schedule changes until the new terminal opens. And since that won't happen until October 28th you likely won't see much change until 2009. You might get a few new winter route additions but I don't think it will be enough to justify a passenger growth of nearly a quarter of a million passengers. Next year holds more promise.

2) The economy is in poor shape and combined with higher oil prices I think more people will be staying home.

My projection of 2008 is close to what the total was for 2007. My prediction is 8.25 million passengers served.

Food4Geeks.com - Even Geeks Like To Eat.

Boofer

Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 04:30:30 am

Boofer
Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

There's always room for growth at any airport. You take smaller planes and upgrade them to larger planes. E145s become E170s. You start using larger versions of the 737. You can also still add flight frequency just about anywhere at the airport. Perhaps NW is pretty tight at the gates, but they double-up a lot of the RJ gates now - I've never had to walk across the tarmac as often as I do with NW at IND now.

As for the economy, travel isn't showing many signs of a slowdown yet. We had gas prices at $3.75 last May, and it didn't slow travel much in 2007. Besides, have you seen some of the fares ex-IND lately? I flew r/t to BOS for about $200. I'm flying r/t to MCI pretty soon for $89 on a Mon-Tue. Airlines are offering incredibly cheap fares right now, to the point where it's much cheaper and easier to fly than it is to drive, in many cases. Heck, even CO's nonstop to EWR is down to about $600 after being $900-$1100 for nearly all of 2007.

I tend to believe the airport authority's projections. And just imagine, after the convention center opens in a couple years, we'll get several really large conventions back, plus we'll still have biggies like FFA and GenCon going on. This airport is poised for some really great times ahead, too.

Can I get a peanut crumb with that thimble of Coke?

Indy

Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 03:05:49 pm

Indy
Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

They did overshoot their forecast last year a bit.

Food4Geeks.com - Even Geeks Like To Eat.

ATAIndy

Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 04:44:14 pm

ATAIndy
Member

Joined: 15 May 2006
Posts: 728
Location: West Lafayette, IN

Dang, those are some good fares you've got there Boofer.

I see numbers holding for this year, maybe a slight increase because of the new terminal opening, but nothing major.

Why do my favorite airlines end up going defunct??

http://web01.jetphotos.net/showphotos.php?userid=16657
http://myaviation.net/search/search.php?uid=8779
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ataindy/

Indy

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 03:43:55 pm

Indy
Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

April's numbers are out and it is another disappointing month. Three of the four months so far have missed the IAA forecast. March and April have left us about 78,000 passengers short of forecast. Right now I'd say 8.5 million passengers served would be highly unlikely. Right now I'm not confident in my 8.25 million passenger forecast. If the forecast is met every month for the rest of the year the total passengers served will be 8.4 million. With the state of the economy and rising ticket prices that would seem unlikely.

Food4Geeks.com - Even Geeks Like To Eat.

Indy

Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 05:30:02 am

Indy
Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

The end of year numbers are out and I was much closer in my forecast than the airport authority was in theirs. The airport handled 8.15 million passengers in 2008. My prediction in the start of the thread was 8.25 million passengers. The airport authority had forecast 8.5 million passengers for 2008. They missed the mark by 0.35 million passengers. I only missed the mark by 0.1 million passengers.

No applause. Just money. Smile

http://www.indianapolisairport...ads/docs/Dec%202008_R8A494.pdf

Food4Geeks.com - Even Geeks Like To Eat.

Forum Index  >  IND News  >  2008 Traffic Forecast for IND

Pages(s):  1